Climate Change Science and Policy: A Critical Review

The Greenhouse Effect: Misunderstood and Misrepresented

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its collaborators have consistently overlooked the core physics of the greenhouse effect. They've failed to properly account for how greenhouse gases, primarily water vapor, modify the infrared (IR) spectrum emitted by Earth to space. This measurement, involving quantum mechanics, molecular spectroscopy, and statistical mechanics, is crucial for understanding how our planet's temperature is regulated.

Satellite observations have confirmed that different atmospheric gases interfere with the emission of IR radiation. The resulting spectrum is jagged, unlike the smooth curve predicted by Planck's law for a blackbody. This difference represents the greenhouse effect. However, the IPCC's models, based on an unrealistic standard atmosphere with zero water vapor and a "patched-in" feedback mechanism, fail to accurately represent this crucial process.

“No government has the right to decide on the truth of scientific principles, nor to prescribe in any way the character of questions investigated." – Richard Feynman, The Meaning of It all: Thoughts of a Citizen-Scientist

Radiative Forcing: Ignoring the Elephant in the Room

The IPCC's concept of radiative forcing, defined as the change in Earth's energy balance caused by external factors, suffers from a glaring omission: water vapor. While recognizing the sun's radiative input and Earth's albedo (reflectivity) as key factors influencing the planet's temperature, the IPCC's reports largely ignore water vapor, the most significant greenhouse gas.

This omission has profound implications. Water vapor accounts for over 75% of the greenhouse effect and substantially diminishes the impact of other greenhouse gases like methane and nitrous oxide. Yet, these less influential gases are targeted by government policies without robust physical evidence supporting their significant contribution.

Atoms, Molecules, and the Infrared Spectrum

To grasp the greenhouse effect, we must understand how atoms and molecules interact with IR radiation. Atoms have discrete energy levels, and when electrons transition between these levels, they emit or absorb photons of specific energies. Molecules, with their vibrational and rotational modes, have a far greater number of energy states and interact with a wider range of IR wavelengths.

The IPCC's historical misunderstanding of this intricate process led to their flawed prediction of the IR spectrum. They failed to account for the constant interplay of excitation and de-excitation of molecules through collisions and IR emission/absorption, processes crucial for shaping the jagged IR spectrum observed from space. This fundamental error demonstrates a deep disconnect between their models and the observed reality of atmospheric physics.

The Water Vapor Feedback Loop: Exaggerated Fears

While NASA acknowledges that warmer temperatures lead to increased atmospheric water vapor, the amplified warming asserted by climate models is greatly exaggerated. Calculations demonstrate that the additional warming caused by this feedback is significantly smaller than projected, aligning with geological evidence spanning millions of years.

The alarmist narrative of a runaway warming effect due to increasing water vapor is simply not supported by physical evidence. These calculations, unlike what some alarmists maintain, converge to a specific value and do not spiral infinitely upwards.

Weather vs. Climate Models: Apples and Oranges

Though weather models have made impressive advancements in short-term forecasting, climate models are fundamentally different. They fail to adequately represent crucial factors such as cloud formation, a complex process with a net cooling effect. Moreover, climate models are not subjected to the same rigorous testing and updating as weather models, leading to inaccuracies in long-term projections.

The Net-Zero Delusion: A Case Study from the UK

The UK's pursuit of net-zero emissions policies has brought the country to the brink of blackouts, illustrating the dangers of prioritizing ideology over pragmatic energy planning. Frequent "frequency events" and periods of low renewable energy generation ("dunkelflaute") underscore the unreliability of intermittent sources like wind and solar.

This experience serves as a cautionary tale for other nations considering similar policies. The transition to a reliable, affordable energy system requires careful consideration of diverse factors, including the limitations of intermittent renewables.

The Pervasiveness of Climate Alarmism

From exaggerated claims about rising sea levels to misleading reports on wildfires and ocean currents, the media often perpetuates climate alarmism. This pervasive negativity, fueled by flawed science and emotional appeals, can stifle reasoned discussion and hinder effective policymaking.